According to Kagan Research, the XBox 360 is set to dominate console sales in 2006, taking 54% of the market share. By 2008, however, PS3 is forecasted to be back on top with the same share, 54%. Source: GibThis.com
I don’t know exactly how accurately anyone can predict what console sales will be like in 2008, but I imagine the numbers for 2006 won’t be far off. The official word from Sony is that the PS3 will be available both in Japan and the US in spring 2006. This would be quite a feat, and I wouldn’t start lining up just yet. This will give the XBox 360 plenty of time to build market share without any serious competition.
The past has proven that being first doesn’t mean you win, however. Look what happened to Sega with both Dreamcast and Saturn. 3D0 anyone? All of these platforms were ahead of their competition, and all of them pretty much failed miserably. (I owned most of them at one point. That 3D0 sytem cost about $700 if I recall).
I’m inclined to agree with the experts on this one. XBox may gain a temporary lead while Sony hurries to release the Playstation 3. If the PS3 is half as good as we all expect it to be, however, I think it will quickly close the gap and resume pounding Microsoft. As it should be.
More commentary on this at ps3blog.net.
P.S. Somebody leave a comment. Though I do enjoy talking to myself, I’d love to hear from you.
-Gary
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